Kazakhstan’s Authoritarian Drift: What’s at Stake?

Kazakhstan’s parliamentary elections on August 23 are a foregone conclusion, with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s ruling party Adilet poised to sweep the polls. The real story lies in what these elections portend for Kazakhstan’s future and its position within a rapidly shifting regional landscape.

The consolidation of power under Tokayev has accelerated at an alarming rate since he took office. The new constitution, approved earlier this year, effectively neutered any semblance of opposition by banning independent candidates from running and limiting party competition. This trend is part of Kazakhstan’s post-independence trajectory, marked by the gradual concentration of power in the president’s hands.

Expert observers warn that these elections are merely a means to an end – the further entrenchment of authoritarian rule in Kazakhstan. Luca Anceschi, Professor of Eurasian Studies at the University of Glasgow, notes that the new parliament will likely rubber-stamp government policies with little meaningful debate or opposition. Stefan Meister, Head of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia, cautions against expecting a significant reaction from European Union members or the European Commission.

The EU’s pragmatic approach towards Central Asian states prioritizes trade routes and resource extraction over democratic values. Kazakhstan, with its abundant resources and strategic location, is a key player in this calculus. Its position as the second-largest oil exporter to the EU underscores the importance of maintaining good relations.

However, this delicate balancing act may soon become increasingly difficult to maintain due to the war in Ukraine. Kazakhstan’s neutral stance thus far may not be sustainable, particularly as it seeks to diversify its external relations and reduce dependence on Russia. Meister suggests that the country will need to recalibrate its foreign policy to accommodate growing EU interests.

The implications of this are significant: will Kazakhstan continue down the path of authoritarianism or seek to balance its resource curse with economic growth? As Anceschi wryly observes, “Wherever you buy your oil and gas from, you’re never going to buy it from a democracy – unless it’s Norway.” This raises important questions about the EU’s commitment to democratic values in its partner countries.

The stakes are high not just for Kazakhstan but also for the wider region. A shift in Kazakhstan’s foreign policy could have far-reaching consequences, particularly for its neighbors in Central Asia as they navigate this treacherous landscape. The future of Kazakhstan’s authoritarian drift will be shaped by a complex interplay of domestic and external factors.

The EU’s reluctance to react to Kazakhstan’s democratic backslide raises important questions about its commitment to democratic values in its partner countries. Anceschi notes that an authoritarian backslide is underway not only in Kazakhstan but also in other EU partner countries, highlighting the need for a more robust approach from Brussels.

However, Meister suggests that civil society organizations, the European Parliament, or the Council of Europe may be more likely to speak out against Kazakhstan’s actions. This seems a faint hope given the current climate, and Anceschi caustically remarks that “The days when the European Union and individual EU member states were more critical of the rule of law and governance in Central Asia are gone.”

Kazakhstan’s vast natural resources have long been a double-edged sword – providing economic growth but also perpetuating authoritarianism. The country’s position as a key oil exporter to the EU has created a perverse dynamic: its rulers become increasingly beholden to foreign powers while suppressing domestic dissent.

The EU’s prioritization of trade routes and resource extraction over democratic values has created a moral hazard, where authoritarian regimes are incentivized to maintain their grip on power. This is exemplified by Anceschi’s wry observation that “Wherever you buy your oil and gas from, you’re never going to buy it from a democracy – unless it’s Norway.”

As Kazakhstan hurtles towards what promises to be another authoritarian election, the world will be watching with bated breath as it stumbles further into the shadows of its resource-fueled past.